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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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