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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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