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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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