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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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