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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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