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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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