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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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