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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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