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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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