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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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