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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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