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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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