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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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