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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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