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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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