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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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