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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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