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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- The University of Queensland
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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