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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- The University of Queensland
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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