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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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