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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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