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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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