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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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