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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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