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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
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