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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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Showing 2816 to 2820 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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