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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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