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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
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