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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
Friday, 08 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S. UP 3.2% THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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