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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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