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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 May 15
Q1' 16 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3' 15 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.05 (2.10%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.53 (1.05%) pe ...
Sunday, 17 May 15
INDONESIA - INDIA FREIGHTS RATES EXPECTED TO FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 10.45% and closed at 634 points week on week, while the Cape index saws big jump or up almost 55% for the same peri ...
Friday, 15 May 15
DRY BULK AND CONTAINER SHIPPING TO REMAIN WEAK, OUTLOOK FOR PORTS AND TANKERS POSITIVE - DREWRY MARITIME EQUITY RESEARCH
Global economy is in a gradual recovery mode, sending mixed signals to investors. Chinese economic data continues to remain weak as economy transit ...
Friday, 15 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S DOWN 1.4 MILLION TONS FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 8
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 13 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The EU governments in an effort to face their economic crisis individually are facing lack of political cohesion. This reflects back to each econom ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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