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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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