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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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