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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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