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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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