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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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