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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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