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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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