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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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