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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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