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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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