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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 May 15
COMBINATION OF HOLIDAYS AND A SHAKY MARKET PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON RATES
COALspot.com: The combination of holidays and a shaky market is always a recipe for additional pressure on rates and last week was no exception. Wi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
The first four months of 2015 are now behind us and they make up for a decent amount of time to look back and assess how the year is evolving so fa ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
MIFA BERSAUDARA UNIT OF ABM INVESTAMA STARTS OPERATING $200M COAL MINE IN ACEH
Reswara Minergi Hartama, a coal mining unit of coal miner ABM Investama known as known as Reswara, inaugurated a $200 million integrated coal minin ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FREIGHT DERIVATIVE VOLUMES REACHED TOTALED 14,154 CONTRACTS IN APRIL - SGX
COALspot.com: “Our unique suite of freight and bulk commodity products provides market participants with a wide range of trading strategies a ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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