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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
Friday, 08 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S. UP 3.2% THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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