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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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