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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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