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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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