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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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