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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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