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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 June 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S ROSE 6.0% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.3 million short ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.31% MORE COAL IN MAY 2015 COMPARED TO APRIL 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.18 billio ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
CAPESIZE: PERIOD INTEREST REMAINED STRONG FOR A SECOND WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Following those depressive last six months, the BDI closed off on last Friday noting a substantial weekly increase, which pushed the ...
Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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