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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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